By most accounts, the Netherlands and Germany were rather underwhelming in their first group games.
The
difference, of course, is that Germany still got the result they
needed, whereas the Netherlands didn't. Germany managed to beat
Portugal, 1-0, in a rather cagey match, while the Netherlands were
shocked, 1-0, by Denmark.
As such, the Netherlands will face off
against Germany knowing that anything other than a win will likely see
them exit the competition ignominiously, having miserably failed to meet
expectations that they might challenge for the Euro 2012 title.
Germany
will be under much less pressure knowing that, even if they fail to
secure all three points against the Netherlands, they should still be
able to comfortably beat the Danish in their final group game.
Here's everything you need to know about the Group of Death's biggest match.
Team News
Both
Germany and the Netherlands have no new injuries to report. However,
the Netherlands have one of their starters returning to full fitness.
In Holland's defense, Ron Vlaar will return to the bench as Joris Mathijsen has been declared fit and ready for
Holland's match with Germany. His return will be welcomed by Holland
supporters, players and the manager; the team did not look very secure
in the back without him.
Projected Lineups
Germany
are unlikely to change anything about their starting lineup. The team
looked a bit stifled against Portugal, but Joachim Low will likely put
that on Portugal's defending than on any flaw in his players.
As
for the Netherlands, expect Bert van Marwijk to ring in the changes.
It'd be bold, but I expect Van Marwijk to bench Robin van Persie and
start Klaas-Jan Huntelaar after RVP's poor performance against the
Danes.
Call it nerves or something else, but RVP has always
struggled at major tournaments (World Cup 2010, anyone?), and that trend
seems to have continued here despite his terrific club form.
There are two more bold moves which Van Marwijk would be wise to make; whether he actually makes them is a different story.
The
first is to bench Arjen Robben for Rafael van der Vaart. Robben looked
just as off form for Holland as he did in his last few games with Bayern
Munich last season.
Just as he cost Bayern Munich a host of
trophies in the final stages of the season, he could cost Holland the
tournament with another start.
The second is to start Kevin
Strootman ahead of Mark van Bommel or Nigel de Jong. As Johan Cruyff has
commented many times, playing both Van Bommel and De Jong together
makes the Netherlands a very defensive side.
Of course, they're
gifted with some of the world's best attackers, but adding Strootman to
the lineup would inject more creativity and fluidity into the side, and
having a playmaker from deep would allow Holland's play to flow more
smoothly throughout the pitch instead of just the final third of the
pitch.
Here's how I anticipate the Netherlands will line up:
Matchups To Watch & Prediction
One
of the biggest reasons for Holland's ineffectiveness against Denmark
was their inability to get anything productive from their right flank.
Robben was consistently fed the ball by him his teammates, only to shank
the ball wide or find himself dispossessed.
If Holland hope to
beat Germany, they'll need whoever starts on the right flank (Van der
Vaart or Robben) to be much more effective. Van Marwijk's decision to
start on four attackers means that the team really struggles when one of
them is off form.
Especially against a team of Germany's quality,
the Netherlands will be punished if all their attackers aren't
performing and pressuring the German defense.
As for Germany, it's
all about Mario Gomez. Lukas Podolski and Thomas Muller are dangerous,
as is Mesut Ozil, and the German bench is packed with world-class
attackers (Gotze, Reus, Kroos), but ultimately it'll be about their
centre-forward putting the ball into the back of the net.
Keeping
Gomez quiet will be no easy task for Holland, though. Even with Joris
Mathijsen's return, Netherlands' centre-backs aren't the highest-caliber
defenders.
Gomez has punished many better defenders throughout
his career, and John Heitinga and Mathijsen will need to be at the top
of their game to keep him contained for the entire match.
Prediction: Germany 2, Netherlands 1
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